Ukraine and Russia in the sunoil market: competitors or partners?
The 2013/14 season saw sunseed records in Ukraine and Russia. Both countries harvested bumper total sunseed crops and are processing them at a record pace: a combined almost 6.6 MMT of sunoil has been produced in Ukraine and Russia this season
The 2013/14 season saw sunseed records in Ukraine and Russia. Both countries harvested bumper total sunseed crops and are processing them at a record pace: a combined almost 6.6 MMT of sunoil has been produced in Ukraine and Russia this season from some 16 MMT of sunseed. For comparison, Ukrainian and Russian crushers processed 14.5 MMT of sunseed and produced 0.5 MMT less sunoil (just 6.1 MMT) for the entire 2012/13 season.
The impressive output volumes have aggravated already serious Ukrainian-Russian competition in the sunoil export market.
According to UkrAgroConsult, sunoil exports from Ukraine and Russia have already reached a combined 4.9 MMT in 2013/14, including 70% from Ukraine and 30% from Russia. We expect Ukraine and Russia will export a total of 5.5-5.6 MMT of sunoil in 2013/14 and the countries’ shares will remain unchanged at 70% and 30%, respectively. As a reminder, Ukraine accounted for 77% and Russia for 23% of the 2012/13 overall sunoil export volume of 4.2 MMT.
Redistribution of markets is an important feature of the current season. Ukraine is increasingly focused on the eastern export destinations: more than half of sunoil exported in September-May went to India and China. In addition, Ukrainian exports to the EU revived in the latter half of the season as import duties were reduced to zero, while Russian exports to Europe are on the decrease after revision of the general preferences system and raising of European tariffs for imported Russian sunoil. This season, Russia is focused on supplies to Egypt and Turkey – the markets where Ukraine, on the contrary, cut its presence.
Ukraine and Russia are quite likely to get an excellent sunseed crop in 2014, too. We expect the era of high production and low prices to continue into 2014/15.