Olive & Oil 02/01/2012

Previous data and future estimante for olive oil production

During the 99th session of the International Olive Council held in Madrid, experts valued also the situation on the international markets for olive oil

World olive oil production in 2010/11 is provisionally assessed at 3 018 500 t, going up by 45 000 t (+1.5%) from the level in 2009/10. Production has risen 21 500 t in IOC member countries, and by 23 500 t in non-Members, led by Palestine (+19 500 t) and Chile (+4 000 t). According to the provisional figures,
consumption has continued upwards in 2010/11, reaching 2 984 000 t (+3% versus the season before).
Inside the 27-Member European Union, the provisional data for the eight producer countries point to a drop in consumption with a contrasting rise in the 19 importer countries. Provisional consumption data for the mainly importing non-Member countries of the IOC report 8.5% growth, driven by the USA, China, Brazil and Canada.

Estimates put world olive oil production in 2011/12 at 3 098 000 t. This translates into an increase of +79 500 t (+3%) compared with the previous crop year. A number of IOC Members expect their production to rise to the following tonnages: Algeria (54 500 t), Egypt (10 000 t), Greece (310 000 t), Iran (6 000 t), Jordan (22 000 t), Lebanon (18 000 t), Portugal (71 800 t), Syria (200 000 t), and Tunisia and Turkey (180 000 t each). In Albania, Spain, Israel and Morocco, production is expected to move in the opposite
If forecasts do not change, consumption looks poised to continue upwards (+3.2%) to reach a level similar to that of production (3 078 500 t).

In the first eleven months of 2010/11 (October 2010–August 2011) aggregate imports by the six countries rose by 137 722.5 t (+10.4%) compared with the same period the season before (including intra-EU trading).
In the twelve-month period between October and September, imports increased into Brazil (+20%), Canada (+5%) and the USA (+7%) versus the same time span a year earlier. Conversely, Japanese imports fell by 12%. Data for Australia and the EU data are not available for September, but the figures for the first eleven months of the season report a drop of 9% in Australian imports and a rise of 12% in EU imports (intra + extra-EU trade) compared with the year-before level.

Comparison with the same period of the year before shows that prices have
dropped by 4% in Spain (€1.89/kg), 4% in Greece (€1.95/kg) and 13% in Italy (€2.54/kg).
Most recently, prices in Italy have fallen sharply from the record level reached in Week 20 (€3.92/kg), now reaching the level of the flatline noted between February and October 2010.

di Aliona Avduhova