Olive & Oil 01/10/2012

Olive oil production outlook: Spain mourns, Italy does not laugh

It will be a year of discharge, especially in Spain where you do not exceed one million tonnes. Italy suffers from frost and drought but held. Stocks could be reduced to zero and the prices are expected to rise

2012 promises to be another year of discharge for Italy after the previous one, with a production below average, and should not exceed 300/330.000 tons, a decrease of 5/10% compared to last year.
Blame the winter frosts, which have affected the crop in many regions of the Adriatic, and the summer drought which has increased fruit drop especially in many non-irrigated olive groves.
Mirror of this season is the first region olive Italian, Puglia, which should have a production loss of 5-10% over last year, in line therefore with the national figure. Holding instead that the Calabria should reconfirm the volume of last year and ensure production of good quality. Same prospects in Sicily. In Campania production is expected to grow by 20%. Central Italy rises again after the disastrous year (-30/40%) last year. Positive sign for Lazio, Tuscany and Umbria, but below expectations. The growth should be between 10 and 20%. Confirmed the production of last year also in northern Italy.
There will be less Italian oil, also considering that the stock is reduced to 5000/8000 tons.

In Spain the situation is much more worrying. Compared to 1.6 million tons last year, Spain will get no more than 950 thousand / 1 million tons. Difficult, especially because of the drought and heat, is the situation in the area of ​​Jaen in Andalusia and where the decline could reach 50%. Fewer problems were found in the area of ​​Seville and Catalonia, where the drop in production should reach 25/30%.
Stocks still present in Spain are 400/500 thousand tons for a total availability which should arrive to 1.5 million tons.

Great forecasts in Greece instead, which should have a production increase of 10%, to 280,000 tons. Great satisfation in Crete, good for the Peloponnese. Overall, the campaign is already shaping up better, especially in terms of quality, in recent years, giving new breath to an economy in crisis.
Stocks in Greece amounted to 5000/8000 tons.

In Tunisia expects that this year could mark a historic production record, reaching the 220,000 tonnes. Very good in the north of the country. The absence of the olive fruit fly and some rain at the right time they also believe that we can achieve better quality and quantity than in recent years. Stocks from last year are less than 10,000 tons.

Morocco suffers, with a production of 60,000 tons, with little prospect of taking oil of good quality, also due to fly problems and drought.

We confirm the production in Turkey (200,000 tons).
Syria is seen falling, for socio-political causes (120/130.000 tons).

Overall the campaign for the Mediterranean area is deficient, with availability in the average of previous years only because of the stock which, together, amounted to 550,000 tons.
A situation that could ignite prices, as evidenced by the exchanges in recent weeks, that could grow by 15-20%.

di Alberto Grimelli, Marcello Scoccia