Olive & Oil 07/01/2013

Negative outlook for Italian and Spanish olive oil productions

In Spain, to find a more disappointing season, must go back to 2000. The data predictions in Italy attests production under 4,8 million tons, down 12% of last year

According to the Spanish Agriculture Cooperatives the olive oil production in this oil campaign will reach 700.000 tons but does not exceed by much. To find a more disappointing season must go back many years, the 1999/2000 season.
If the previous year ended with a record availability of stocks, estimated at almost 800.000 tonnes this year, the stock will go down significantly, even in the presence of a stagnant world market.
From the point of view of quotations, Iberian Cooperatives provide prices rising since the last campaigns although this increase is constrained by the operators, traders and industrialists, who are pressing for stability in prices. This is the context of the agri-food cooperatives that want to increase the prices referred to as "disastrous" for the past month but are aware that prices are too high would be harmful to the buyers, including those from the new consumer countries, "many countries are getting to know this product now and we can not lose these emerging consumers. "
You will still save the export sector, given that in Spain are expected to slightly decline in domestic consumption. The substantial increase in exports of Spanish brands should lead, at the end of the year, to a theoretical zero inventory, ensuring that only the level necessary to cover the connection between the two campaigns.

Drops below 5 million quintals Italian production of olive oil in the campaign 2012/13.
The prediction, made by Ismea in collaboration with Aifo, Cno and Unaprol, attests to the new data production under 4.8 million tons, down 12% compared to 5,5 of last year.
The negative result reflects the consequences of a particularly adverse weather conditions, characterized by a prolonged lack of rain and high temperatures which affected especially fruiting. To limit the damage were only rains in early September.
Apulia and Calabria, which account for nearly two thirds of national production, have accused this year declines by 12 and 15 per cent on last year. Still heavier than the outcome production in Campania, Basilicata and Molise, because of the frequent phenomena of fruit drop (fall of the olives during accretion), while in contrast the Sicily region in which, thanks to irrigation rescue production was instead marked an increase of around 5%. Tuscany in central Italy holds, and yields 3%, the production of Lazio. The heavy financial losses in Umbria (-35%), compared to a positive trend in the Marche region, where more than 15% is expected.
In the north, Liguria, with a leap of 20%, back above the threshold of 40 thousand tons, after two years of lean. Same performance in Lombardy, while the figure for the last confirmation Emilia Romagna, in a campaign rather strongly opposed to the Veneto, which has lost 30% of the volume.
As for the market, underlines the Ismea, after the initial surge in prices in the summer quarter as a reaction to the announcements of the fall in production in Spain, with the entry into production of the new product we have seen, however, to a cooling of the lists is on the front of the national and foreign markets.

di Graziano Alderighi