Olive & Oil 31/08/2014

Spanish olive harvest will be poor next Autumn due the severe drought

In the last weeks the prices of extra virgin and olive oil increased till 2,8 euro/kg in Spain and 4 euro/kg in Italy. The last drought season, in 2012/13, elevated US imported olive oil prices by 8%

In Italy too much rainfall during summer. In Spain too much drought after the record harvest the past year.

The olive harvest will be poor in the two most important producers in the Mediterranean area.

The drought in Spain has speculators, including forecasting agency Oil World, worried that olive yield could drop up to 40% year-over-year in 2014, near 1 Million tons. The southwest regions of Valencia and Alicante are the worst affected, with rainfall off normal averages by as much as 50%. Also Jaen area was affected.

“The drought in Spain and its impact on the olive market is potentially very significant,” Lamine Lahouasnia, head of packaged food at Euromonitor International, told the Wall Street Journal.

“If the drought does end up adversely affecting Spanish yields, it is very likely that we’ll see rising consumer prices in 2014.”

The prices of extra virgin and olive olio increased quite 30% from the beginning of the year ando continue to rise in the lasdt weeks to arrive at 2,8 euro/kg for Spanish extra virgin and 4 euro/kg for Italian one.

The climate models and Spanish researchers both are predicting that Spain’s droughts will get more intense in the next years. According to the IPCC, the Mediterranean may be one of the most impacted areas of the world from climate change.

Already a hot, semi-arid region, hotter summers and more intense and frequent droughts will threaten water supplies and agricultural production.
In the next year will be sufficient olive oil for world consumption due the Spanish stocks that are, in July, 550-600.000 tons.

di T N