Olive & Oil 14/10/2014

The olive oil production will stop to 2.560.000 tons

Bad harvest in Spain and great in Greece. Higher imports by Canada, the United States, Australia and Japan and lower import levels in China and Brazil

World production in 2014/15 is forecast to top 2.560.000 t.

Although this will be around 19% lower than in 2013/14 it will still be more than 6% higher than in 2012/13.

At this juncture, it is too early to judge the accuracy of these estimates.

The data the IOC Council of Members will examine at the end of November will give a better idea of crop year performance unless exceptional weather occurs afterwards. Currently, the itemised figures for the EU/IOC producer member countries show an expected 50% drop in production in Spain to around 875.000 t and a small dip in Portuguese production (-1.5%), contrasting with a forecast of higher production in Greece (+122% to 300.000 t).

Among the rest of the IOC membership, Tunisia forecasts a large season-on-season jump in production to over 260.000 t while Turkey expects production to remain at a similar level of around 190.000 t.

Forecasts are for higher production in all the other Members except for Lebanon, where a small drop is expected, and Syria where the outlook is for production to be 70% lower because of the shortage of rain during fertilisation. Argentina also reports a lower harvest for 2014/15, down by 80% owing to heavy frosts and strong winds during flowering. It should be noted that the 2014/15 crop year in Argentina runs from April 2014 to March 2015 unlike in the rest of the IOC member countries, save Uruguay, where the season goes from October 2014 to September 2015.

The overall picture for 2014/15 is for demand to exceed supply and for stocks to dwindle.

Trade in olive oil and olive pomace oil through the first ten months of the 2013/14 crop year from October 2013 until June 2014 shows higher imports by Canada (+16%), the United States (+6% after imports started to rally in April 2014), Australia (+ 5%) and Japan (+ 5%) and lower import levels in China (-13%) and Brazil (-1%) although a recovery has been noted in recent months in the import data for the last two countries compared with the same period a year earlier.

In the case of Russia, data are only available up to April 2014, i.e. for the first seven months of the season, and reflect an increase of 8% in imports.

di S. C.