Olive & Oil 14/12/2014

World olive oil balances for 2013/14 and 2014/15

World olive oil consumption for the 2014/15 crop year is forecast to total 2823500 tonns. This would be 7% lower than the season before. The latest estimates supplied by countries point to a 27% drop in world olive oil production, forecast at 2393000 tonns, compared with the season before

The 2013/14 crop year opened with 557 500 t in world stocks of olive oil. World production is assessed at 3 270 500 t, up by 36 pc from 2012/13. It is the second best crop year to date; the first was 2011/12 when output totalled 3 321 000 t. Aggregate olive oil production by IOC member countries stood at 3 199 500 t, equal to 98 pc of the world total. The EU countries produced 2 476 500 t of olive oil, 69 pc more than in the previous season. Individually, Spain produced a record tonnage (1 775 800 t), followed by Italy (461 200 t), Greece (131 900 t), Portugal (91 600 t), Cyprus (5 600 t) Croatia (4 900 t), France (4 900 t) and Slovenia (600 t). Output in the rest of the IOC Members was 16 pc lower overall. The leader of the group is Turkey (190 000 t) with Syria in next position (165 000 t) and then Morocco (120 000 t), Tunisia (70 000 t, well down on the season before), Algeria (44 000 t), Argentina and Jordan (each 30 000 t), Lebanon (20 500 t), Israel and Libya (each 15 000 t), Albania (10 500 t) and Iran (5 000 t). The remaining four Members produced smaller volumes. Spain stands out in that its production in 2013/14 was 187 pc higher than the previous crop year and accounted for a 54 pc share of world output. Chart 1 plots the trend of world production, broken down by three producer groups: EU/IOC Members, other IOC Members and non-IOC Members.

World consumption in 2013/14 is assessed at 3 030 000 t. The EU/28 consumed 1 717 000 t of this tonnage, equating with 6 pc growth on 2012/13. Consumption in the rest of the IOC member countries was 11 pc lower than the season before. The biggest decreases have been concentrated in Syria, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and Albania. In the case of non-IOC Members, consumption increased by 6 pc. The most significant increases have been in the United States (+5 pc), Australia (+19 pc; here we are speaking of the spring 2013 harvest), Canada (+9 pc) and Japan (+6 pc). In contrast, consumption went down sharply in China (-18 pc) and slightly in Brazil (-1 pc).
Olive oil imports in 2013/14 totalled 794 000 t while exports came to 817 500 t.

Turning to the 2014/15 crop year, the latest estimates supplied by countries point to a 27 pc drop in world olive oil production, forecast at 2 393 000 t, compared with the season before. As announced in previous issues of this newsletter, bad weather has caused output to drop in some of the producer countries. Aggregate output by the IOC membership is estimated at 2 320 000 t, of which EU producers are expected to account for 1 532 000 t, thus showing a 38 pc season-on-season decrease. A further breakdown of the estimates shows Spain with a production of 825 700 t, much lower than the previous season, followed by Italy (down to 302 500 t), Greece (up to 300 000 t), Portugal (steady at 90 000 t). The volumes produced by the rest of the EU producers are expected to be lower. Elsewhere among the IOC membership olive oil production is forecast to be 9 pc higher than in 2013/14. In first position is Tunisia, where production looks set to rise sharply to 260 000 t, followed by Turkey (stable at 190 000 t), Morocco (down slightly to 110 000 t), Syria (down sharply to 50 000 t), Algeria (steady at 44 000 t), Jordan (up to 35 000 t), Egypt (up to 21 000 t), Israel (up to 17 500 t), Lebanon (down to 16 500 t), Libya (steady at 15 000 t), Albania (up to 12 000 t), Iran (up to 9 000 t) and Argentina (down sharply to 6 000 t – the crop year in Argentina is for the harvest beginning in April 2014). Smaller tonnages are forecast for the rest of the countries.

World olive oil consumption for the 2014/15 crop year is forecast to total 2 823 500 t. This would be 7 pc lower than the season before.

di S. C.