Grapevine & Wine 04/02/2013

Wine market forecast to 2016: consumption expected to rise by over 2 billion

Global wine consumption is set to rise by 5.3% to 2016, according to the IWSR study for Vinexpo on the world wine market. By 2016, wine drinkers worldwide should be supping a staggering 34.481 billion bottles of wine

Worldwide consumption of still, light wines (i.e. with less than 15% alcohol content) and sparkling wines increased by 2.8% between 2007 and 2011, reaching 2.679 billion 9-liter cases by the end of the period, the equivalent of 32 billion bottles.

VINEXPO's market survey, the only one of its kind to anticipate changes in consumption, production and trade on a world scale over the next 5 years, forecasts that between 2012 and 2016, growth in worldwide consumption will become faster. It will return to the rates observed between 2000 and 2005 and reach 5.3% over the 5-year period.

By 2016, world consumption will reach 2.873 billion 9-liter cases (or 34.481 billion bottles).

In 2011, sparkling wines accounted for 7.7% of all wines drunk in the world.

Between 2007 and 2011, the consumption of sparkling wines grew by 4.12%, compared to the 2.72% growth in still, light wines over the same period. Sparkling wine consumption is expected to grow by a further 8.52% between 2012 and 2016.

This increase is primarily due to expected rises in consumption in the top four sparkling wine markets worldwide: Germany, France, Russia and the U.S.

In 2011, these four markets drank 129 million more 9-liter cases than in 2007, an increase of 1.55 billion bottles.

In 2010, China became the fifth largest wine consumer in the world. In 2011, the U.S. became the leading wine consuming nation and Australia joined the top ten wine drinking countries, relegating Romania to second division.

For the first time in 15 years, German and British wine consumption decreased between 2007 and 2011 by 2.73% and 4.07%, respectively.

The French and the Italians also reduced their consumption: down 7.13% in the first case and 2.51% in the second.

In Spain, meanwhile, consumption collapsed, down 19.67% in the 5 years between 2007 and 2011.

Red wine accounted for 54.7% of all still, light wines drunk in 2011.

Between 2011 and 2016, world red wine consumption is expected to grow by 9.1%, driven especially by the Chinese, while white wine consumption should only increase by 2.75% over the same period.

The consumption of rosé wines, on the other hand, is expected to increase by 7.58% between 2011 and 2016, reaching a total share of 9.2% of all wines drunk.

These wines accounted for 213.56 million 9-liter cases in 2011 or 8.6% of all still, light wines consumed in the world, their consumption having grown by 12.59% since 2007, mainly in China, the U.S. and Canada.

Their growth should continue between 2011 and 2016 by a massive 29.93%, while at the same time the consumption of wines priced from US$5 to US$10 per bottle is expected to increase by 9.99%.

Wines that sell for less than US$5 per bottle, which represented 69.92% of wines drunk in 2011, are expected to increase by 2.77% over the same 5-year period.

A little more than one bottle out of four drunk somewhere in the world, 27% to be precise, is imported.

This segment continues to grow faster than the whole market, up 7.92% between 2007 and 2011, compared to 2.83 %.

Having sold US$9.902 billion worth of its wine overseas in 2011 (5.24% more than in 2007), France consolidated its world position as the leading exporter of wine in value terms.

Italy and Spain came second and third, but the value of their sales grew less than the volumes they exported: revenue was up 24.31% compared to an increase in volumes of 47.62%, a clear sign that the average prices of their exported wines fell significantly.

The same could be said for Australian wines: up 13.3% in volume but down 20.94% in value between 2007 and 2011. Conversely, Chilean wines are pursuing a clear strategy to move up market in the worldwide arena: up 8.13% in volume but up 33.09% in value over the same 5-year period.

di T N